Kufambisa Shanduko: Iyo Remangwana Direction yeKemikari Indasitiri

Mamiriro epasi rose ari kuchinja nekukurumidza, zvichikanganisa chimiro chenzvimbo yemakemikari chakaumbwa muzana ramakore rapfuura. Semusika mukuru wepasi rose wevatengi, China iri kutora zvishoma nezvishoma basa rakakosha rekuchinja kwemakemikari. Indasitiri yemakemikari yeEurope inoenderera mberi nekusimudzira indasitiri yemakemikari, uye indasitiri yemakemikari yekuNorth America iri kukonzeresa "reverse globalization" yekutengeserana kwemakemikari. Indasitiri yemakemikari kuMiddle East neEastern Europe iri kuwedzera zvishoma nezvishoma cheni yeindasitiri, ichivandudza kugona kwekushandisa kwezvinhu zvakabikwa uye kukwikwidza kwepasirese. Maindasitiri emakemikari kutenderera pasirese ari kushandisa zvawo zvakanakira kukurumidza kusimudzira, uye maitiro eindasitiri yemakemikari epasi rose anogona kuita shanduko huru mune ramangwana.

Mafambiro ekusimudzira indasitiri yemakemikari yepasi rose inopfupikiswa sezvizvi:

"Vaviri" kabhoni"Maitiro aya anogona kuchinja nzvimbo yemakambani mazhinji epetrochemicals."

Nyika dzakawanda pasi rose dzakazivisa zvakatevedzana kuti China ichasvika pakakwirira kabhoni muna 2030 uye ichaita kusarerekera kwekabhoni muna 2060. Kunyange zvazvo mamiriro ezvinhu e "dual carbon" aripo ane zvishoma, kazhinji, "dual carbon" ichiri chiyero icho nyika inofanira kutora kuti igone kurarama nekudziya kwemamiriro ekunze.

Sezvo Petrochemical Industry inobata chikamu chikuru chekubuda kwekabhoni, iindasitiri inoda kugadzirisa zvakanyanya pasi peiyo mbiri kabhoni maitiro. Iko kugadzirisa kwehungwaru kwemakambani epetrochemical kutarisana neaviri kabhoni maitiro kwagara kuri kutarisa kweindasitiri.

Pasi pehuviri kabhoni maitiro, nzira dzekugadzirisa dzeEuropean neAmerica hofori dzemafuta epasi rose dzakafanana. Pakati pavo, hofori dzeoiri dzeAmerica dzinotarisa pakuvandudzwa kwekabhoni kubata uye kabhoni sealing ine hukama matekinoroji, uye nekusimudzira nesimba biomass simba. EEurope nemamwe mahofori emafuta epasi rose achachinja pfungwa dzavo kune simba rinogoneka, magetsi akachena uye mamwe mafambiro.

Mune ramangwana, pasi pemaitiro ekusimudzira e "dual carbon", indasitiri yemakemikari yepasi rose inogona kuita shanduko huru, uye mamwe mahofori emafuta epasi rese anogona kubuda kubva kune vekutanga vanopa mafuta sevhisi kuenda kune vatsva vanopa magetsi, vachichinja chinzvimbo chekambani chezana ramakore rapfuura.

Makambani emakemikari epasi rose acharamba achimhanyisa kugadzirisa kwemaitiro

Nekuvandudzwa kweindasitiri yepasi rose, kukwidziridzwa kwemaindasitiri uye kusimudzira mashandisirwo akaunzwa nemusika wekupedzisira kwakasimudzira musika mutsva wemakemikari wepamusoro uye nekusimudzira kutenderera kutsva kwekugadzirisa zvimiro uye kusimudzira indasitiri yemakemikari yepasi rose.

Nezve gwara rekusimudzira maindasitiri epasi rose, kune rumwe rutivi, kusimudzira simba rebiomass uye simba idzva; kune rumwe rutivi, zvinhu zvitsva, zvinhu zvinoshanda, makemikari emagetsi, zvigadzirwa zvefirimu, zvitsva Catalysts, etc. Pasi peutungamiriri hwepasi rose petrochemical giants, kutungamira kwekusimudzira kweaya maindasitiri emakemikari epasi rose kuchatenderera kune zvitsva, sainzi yehupenyu nesainzi yezvakatipoteredza.

Kureruka kwemakemikari akagadzirwa zvakaunza shanduko yepasi rose muchimiro chezvigadzirwa zvemakemikari

Nekukura kwemafuta e shale muUnited States, United States yachinja kubva kune yekutanga kutenga kunze kwenyika yemafuta asina kuchena kuenda kune yazvino mambure ekunze emafuta asina kuchena, izvo zvisina kungounza shanduko huru kusimba reUnited States, asi zvakare yakave nekukanganisa kwakadzama pasimba repasi rose. Oiri yeUS shale ioiri isina kuchena, uye kuwedzera kweUS shale oiri yakawedzera zvakatowedzera kuwedzera kwepasi rose mafuta asina kuchena.

Nekudaro, maererano neChina, China mutengi wemafuta epasi rose. Mapurojekiti mazhinji ekunatsa nekubatanidza makemikari ari kuvakwa anonyanya kuenderana neakazara-range crude oil processing, izvo zvinoda kwete chete mafuta asina kuchena asiwo anorema crude oil.

Kubva pamaonero ekupa uye kudiwa, zvinotarisirwa kuti chiedza chepasi rose uye chinorema crude mutengo gap chichadzikira zvishoma nezvishoma, zvichiunza zvinotevera zvinokanganisa kuindasitiri yemakemikari yepasirese:

Chekutanga, kudzikiswa kwemafuta akareruka uye anorema arbitrage akakonzereswa nekudzikira kwechiedza uye inorema crude mutengo gap kwakanganisa maitiro ekufungidzira nemutengo wemafuta arbitrage seyemhando huru yebhizinesi, iyo inobatsira kushanda kwakasimba kwemusika wepasi rose wemafuta.

Chechipiri, nekuwedzera kwemafuta akareruka uye kuderera kwemitengo, zvinotarisirwa kuwedzera kushandiswa kwepasi rose kwemafuta akareruka uye kuwedzera chiyero chekugadzirwa kwenaphtha. Nekudaro, pasi pemaitiro epasirese emagetsi ekupaza zviwanikwa, kushandiswa naphtha kunotarisirwa kudzikira, izvo zvinogona kutungamira mukukwira kwekupokana pakati pekupa naphtha uye kushandiswa, nekudaro kudzikisa kukosha kwenaphtha.

Chechitatu, kukura kwemafuta akareruka kunoderedza kubuda kwezvigadzirwa zvinorema zvakadzika zvichibva pamafuta akazara, senge zvigadzirwa zvinonhuhwirira, dhiziri, petroleum coke, etc. Iyi budiriro inofambiranawo netarisiro yekuti mwenje unopwanya mbishi zvinhu zvinokonzeresa kuderera kwezvigadzirwa zvinonhuhwirira, izvo zvinogona kuwedzera musika wekufungidzira mamiriro ezvigadzirwa zvinoenderana.

Chechina, kudzikisira kwegoho remutengo pakati pemafuta akajeka uye anorema asina kuchena anogona kuwedzera mitengo yezvigadzirwa zvemabhizinesi akabatanidzwa ekunatsa, nekudaro ichidzikisa tarisiro yepurofiti yemapurojekiti akabatanidzwa ekunatsa. Pasi pemaitiro aya, kusimudzirwa kwemwero wekunatsiridza kwemabhizinesi akabatanidzwa ekunatsa kuchasimudzirwawo.

Indasitiri yemakemikari yepasi rose inogona kukurudzira kubatanidzwa kwakawanda uye kurongazve

Pasi pemashure e "dual kabhoni", "simba rekuchinja shanduko" uye "anti-globalization", nharaunda inokwikwidza yemabhizinesi madiki uye epakati nepakati ichawedzera kuomarara, uye zvisungo zvakaita sechiyero, mutengo, capital, tekinoroji, uye kuchengetedza kwezvakatipoteredza kuchakanganisa zvakanyanya mabhizinesi madiki uye epakati.

Mukupesana, hofori dzepasi rose petrochemical dziri kuita yakazara bhizinesi kubatanidza uye optimization. Kune rimwe divi, ivo vachabvisa zvishoma nezvishoma mabhizinesi echinyakare petrochemical ane simba rakawanda rekushandisa, yakaderera kukosha, uye kusvibiswa kwakanyanya. Kune rimwe divi, kuti uwane tarisiro yebhizinesi repasi rose, petrochemical giants ichabhadhara zvakanyanya uye zvakanyanya kutarisisa kubatanidzwa uye kutora uye kurongazve. Huyero hwekuita uye huwandu hwekubatanidza uye kutora uye kuronga patsva zvakare hwaro hwakakosha hwekuwongorora kutenderera kweindasitiri yemakemikari. Ehe, kana tichitaura nezve hupfumi huri kusimukira, vachiri kushandisa kuzvivakira senzira huru yekusimudzira uye vanowana kukurumidza uye hukuru hwekuwedzera nekutsvaga mari.

Zvinotarisirwa kuti kubatanidza kemikari nekurongeka patsva kuchanyanya kutariswa munyika dzakabudirira dzakaita seEurope neUnited States, uye hupfumi huri kusimukira hunomiririrwa neChina hunogona kutora chikamu zvine mwero.

Iyo yeramangwana yepakati- uye yenguva refu yehurongwa hwekutungamira kwemakemikari hofori inogona kunge yakanyanya kusimba

Tichitevera hurongwa hwekusimudzira hwe Global Chemical Giants inzira inochengetedza yekutevera, asi ine kumwe kurehwa kwakakosha.

Tichitarisa zviyero zvepetrochemical giants, vazhinji vavo vakatanga kubva kune imwe nzvimbo yehunyanzvi ndokuzotanga kutsauka nekuwedzera. The whole development logic ine imwe periodicity, convergence-divergence-convergence-divergence zvakare...Parizvino uye kwenguva yakati muneramangwana, hofori dzinogona kunge dziri muconvergence cycle, mashandiro adzo anowedzera matavi, mibatanidzwa yakasimba, uye yakanyatsonangana nemazano ehurongwa. Semuyenzaniso, BASF ichave yakakosha danho rekusimudzira muminda ye Kuruka, zvinokonzeresa, zvinoshanda, nezvimwe, uye Huntsman icharamba ichigadzira yayo Polyurethane Business mune ramangwana.