The global situation is changing rapidly, affecting the chemical location structure formed over the past century. As the world's largest consumer market, China is gradually taking on the important task of chemical transformation. The European chemical industry continues to develop towards high-end chemical industry, and the North American chemical industry is triggering "reverse globalization" of chemical trade. The chemical industry in the Middle East and Eastern Europe is gradually expanding the industrial chain, improving the utilization capacity of raw materials and global competitiveness. Chemical industries around the world are using their own advantages to accelerate development, and the pattern of the global chemical industry may undergo major changes in the future.
The development trend of the global chemical industry is summarized as follows:
The "dual carbon" trend may change the strategic positioning of many petrochemical companies
Many countries in the world have successively announced that China will reach its carbon peak in 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. Although the current "dual carbon" situation is limited, in general, "dual carbon" is still a measure that the world must take to cope with climate warming.
Since the Petrochemical Industry accounts for a large proportion of carbon emissions, it is an industry that needs to make major adjustments under the dual carbon trend. The strategic adjustment of petrochemical companies to cope with the dual carbon trend has always been the focus of industry attention.
Under the dual carbon trend, the strategic adjustment directions of European and American international oil giants are basically the same. Among them, American oil giants will focus on the development of carbon capture and carbon sealing related technologies, and vigorously develop biomass energy. European and other international oil giants will shift their focus to renewable energy, clean electricity and other directions.
In the future, under the overall development trend of "dual carbon", the global chemical industry may undergo tremendous changes, and some international oil giants may evolve from the original oil service providers to new energy service providers, changing the corporate positioning of the past century.
Global chemical companies will continue to accelerate structural adjustment
With the development of the global industry, the industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading brought by the terminal market have promoted the new high-end chemical market and promoted a new round of structural adjustment and upgrading of the global chemical industry.
Regarding the direction of the global industrial structure upgrading, on the one hand, it is the upgrading of biomass energy and new energy; on the other hand, it is new materials, functional materials, electronic chemicals, film materials, new Catalysts, etc. Under the leadership of international petrochemical giants, the upgrading direction of these global chemical industries will revolve around new materials, life sciences and environmental sciences.
The lightening of chemical raw materials has brought about a global transformation in the structure of chemical products
With the growth of shale oil supply in the United States, the United States has changed from an initial net importer of crude oil to a current net exporter of crude oil, which has not only brought great changes to the energy structure of the United States, but also had a profound impact on the global energy structure. U.S. shale oil is a light crude oil, and the increase in U.S. shale oil supply has correspondingly increased the increase in global light crude oil supply.
However, as far as China is concerned, China is a global crude oil consumer. Many refining and chemical integration projects under construction are mainly based on full-range crude oil processing, which requires not only light crude oil but also heavy crude oil.
From the perspective of supply and demand, it is expected that the global light and heavy crude oil price gap will gradually narrow, bringing the following impacts to the global chemical industry:
First, the contraction of light and heavy crude oil arbitrage caused by the narrowing of the light and heavy crude oil price gap has affected the speculative behavior with oil price arbitrage as the main business model, which is conducive to the stable operation of the global crude oil market.
Secondly, with the increase in light oil supply and the decline in prices, it is expected to increase the global consumption of light oil and increase the scale of naphtha production. However, under the global trend of light cracking raw materials, naphtha consumption is expected to decrease, which may lead to an escalation of the contradiction between naphtha supply and consumption, thereby reducing naphtha's value expectations.
Third, the growth of light oil supply will reduce the output of downstream heavy products based on full-range oil, such as aromatic products, diesel, petroleum coke, etc. This development trend is also in line with the expectation that light cracking raw materials will lead to a decrease in aromatic products, which may increase the market speculation atmosphere of related products.
Fourth, the narrowing of the price gap between light and heavy crude oil may increase the raw material costs of integrated refining enterprises, thereby reducing the profit expectations of integrated refining projects. Under this trend, the development of the refinement rate of integrated refining enterprises will also be promoted.
The global chemical industry may promote more mergers and reorganizations
Under the background of "dual carbon", "energy structure transformation" and "anti-globalization", the competitive environment of small and medium-sized enterprises will become increasingly severe, and disadvantages such as scale, cost, capital, technology, and environmental protection will seriously affect small and medium-sized enterprises.
In contrast, international petrochemical giants are carrying out comprehensive business integration and optimization. On the one hand, they will gradually eliminate traditional petrochemical businesses with high energy consumption, low added value, and high pollution. On the other hand, in order to achieve the focus of global business, petrochemical giants will pay more and more attention to mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations. The performance scale and number of mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations are also important bases for evaluating the local chemical industry cycle. Of course, as far as emerging economies are concerned, they still use self-construction as the main development model and achieve rapid and large-scale expansion by finding funds.
It is expected that chemical mergers and reorganizations will be mainly concentrated in developed countries such as Europe and the United States, and emerging economies represented by China may participate moderately.
The future medium- and long-term strategic direction of chemical giants may be more concentrated
Following the strategic development direction of Global Chemical Giants is a conservative follow-up strategy, but it has certain reference significance.
Looking at the measures of petrochemical giants, many of them started from a certain professional field and then began to diverge and expand. The overall development logic has a certain periodicity, convergence-divergence-convergence-divergence again... At present and for some time in the future, the giants may be in a convergence cycle, their operations are more branched, strong alliances, and more concentrated strategic directions. For example, BASF will be an important strategic development direction in the fields of Coatings, catalysts, functional materials, etc., and Huntsman will continue to develop its own Polyurethane Business in the future.
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